Statistics
Uncertainty, base rates, and reading a number honestly.
- ErgodicityWhether the average outcome across many people equals the average outcome for one person over time.ConceptsBusiness
- Nassim Nicholas TalebBlack swan events, antifragility, and the argument that decision-makers should bear the consequences of their decisions.FiguresBusinessb. 1960
- Price's lawDerek de Solla Price's claim that half the output of a group comes from the square root of the number of contributors — so of a hundred people, ten produce half the work.ConceptsBusiness
- Regression to the meanExtreme results tend to be followed by less extreme ones, because part of any extreme outcome was luck and luck does not repeat.ConceptsMind