Game theory
Nash equilibrium · strategic interaction
The study of decisions where the outcome depends on what other people choose, and everyone knows the others are reasoning the same way.
In practice
Two competitors both discount. Each is better off cutting whatever the other does, both cut, and they end with the same market share and thinner margins. Neither made a mistake individually.
The common mistake
Assuming it means people are selfish. Payoffs can represent anything a player values, including other people, so the framework is about interdependence rather than motive.
Game theory analyzes situations where your best move depends on what someone else does, and theirs depends on what you do. That mutual dependence is what separates it from ordinary decision-making under uncertainty.
The parts of a game
A game has players, the strategies available to each, and a payoff for every combination of choices. Nothing in the framework requires anyone to be selfish — the payoffs can represent anything a player values, including the welfare of others.
The central solution concept is the Nash equilibrium, named for John Nash: a combination of strategies where no player improves by changing theirs alone. It is a resting point rather than a good outcome, and the useful cases are precisely those where the equilibrium is bad for everyone. See the prisoner's dilemma.
The distinctions that matter
Zero-sum or not. In a zero-sum game one player's gain is another's loss, and most real situations are not like that — treating a negotiation as zero-sum when trades exist destroys value for both sides. See status games.
One-shot or repeated. Repetition changes everything, because a future gives cooperation a way to pay. Strategies that punish defection and otherwise cooperate do well in repeated play and fail in a single round.
Simultaneous or sequential. Moving first can be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on whether commitment helps you.
Where it bites in practice
Pricing is a game: a cut that competitors match leaves everyone with the same share and less margin. Negotiation is a game, and treating it as zero-sum when it is not is the common error. Hiring is a game where both sides have information the other lacks.
The framework's real use is not calculating an optimum. It is noticing that you are in a game at all — that the other party is reasoning about your reasoning — which changes what a good move looks like. See second-order effects and decision under uncertainty.
The limits
It assumes players know the payoffs and reason consistently, and people do neither. Kahneman's work documents systematic departures. The theory describes the structure of a situation well and predicts what people actually do only roughly.
Concept web
Open the full webQuestions
What is game theory?
The study of decisions whose outcomes depend on the choices of others who are reasoning the same way. It analyzes strategies, payoffs and the equilibria they produce.
What is a Nash equilibrium?
A combination of strategies where no player can improve by changing theirs alone. It is a resting point rather than a good outcome, and it can be bad for everyone involved.
What is game theory actually useful for?
Less for calculating an optimum than for recognizing that you are in a game — that the other party is reasoning about your reasoning — which changes what counts as a good move.