The Replacement Number
Not savings. The number is monthly costs covered by repeatable income from a lead source you can name. Runway buys time; a validated source ends the problem. Leave when the second exists, not when the first feels comfortable.
How to run it
- Calculate real monthly costs — Include tax, annual bills divided by twelve, and actual spending. Most people underestimate by a quarter.
- Measure repeatable income only — Retainers and contracted work count. One-off projects are events and do not.
- Name the lead source — Say specifically where the next client comes from and how many it has produced per month.
- Wait for three consecutive months — One good month is noise. Three is a pattern you can leave on.
The number that lets you leave is not your savings. It is your monthly costs, covered by repeatable income, from a lead source you can name.
Why savings is the wrong number
Savings buys time and does nothing about the problem. Six months of runway means six months to solve something you have not started solving, while the balance falls every month and the pressure rises.
People who leave on savings spend the first two months resting, the next two building the wrong thing, and the last two taking any work available at any price. The runway set a deadline and never produced a pipeline. See pipeline not runway.
The three parts
Monthly costs. The real figure, including tax, the annual bills divided by twelve, and what you actually spend rather than what you intend to. Most people are twenty to thirty percent under on this.
Repeatable income. Money that recurs without you starting from zero. Retainers and contracted work count. One large project does not — it is an event, and it ends.
A lead source you can name. Where the next client comes from, stated specifically. "Referrals" is not a source. "Three partners who send me one qualified lead a month, and it has happened for five months" is.
The third part is the one people skip, and it is the one that decides whether month four exists.
The threshold
Leave when repeatable income covers costs, from a named source, for three consecutive months. Three months is the point where you can distinguish a pattern from a coincidence.
The cautious version waits for six. That is also fine, and the cost is a few months of doing both jobs. The version that fails is leaving at one month because the first good month felt like a signal. See the exit pipeline and when to quit your job.
Questions
How much money do you need to quit your job?
Enough repeatable monthly income to cover real monthly costs, coming from a lead source you can name, sustained for three consecutive months. Savings alone sets a deadline without solving anything.
Why isn't savings the right measure?
Because runway buys time without producing pipeline. The balance falls monthly while the underlying problem — a repeatable source of clients — remains unaddressed.
What counts as a named lead source?
A specific, measurable channel with a track record. 'Referrals' is not one. 'Three partners sending one qualified lead each per month for five months' is.